Research Questions/Objectives:
Question 1: How has mangrove area changed through time (gain/loss, edge movement)?
Hypothesis 1: Largest changes coincide with major flood regime shifts (e.g. Burdekin floods), cyclones, and shoreline erosion/accretion pulses.
Question 2: How has canopy height and structure changed?
Hypothesis 2: Sites with sustained sediment accretion show increasing canopy height, while exposed shorelines show suppression or dieback.
Question 3: What landscape and ocean drivers best explain change?
Hypothesis 3: Distance to river mouths, tidal range/exposure, shoreline change rate, and extreme events explain most variance.
Brief Description of the Project:
This project will use multi-temporal LiDAR, drone-based photogrammetry, and satellite remote sensing to assess long-term structural change and climate-driven vulnerability in key coastal vegetation communities across Tropical North Queensland. By analysing canopy height, density, spatial coverage, and dieback indicators over time, the project will identify how drought, reduced freshwater inflows, heat extremes, and broader climate variability shape ecosystem resilience.
Field validation and site-specific data will be integrated with historical elevation, hydrological, and climatic records to develop a clearer understanding of vegetation vulnerability thresholds. The outcomes will demonstrate how remote sensing technologies can provide high-resolution, repeatable monitoring tools that support drought preparedness and adaptive land management across coastal and agricultural landscapes.
Background and Significance of the Research Question to drought risk, vulnerability, preparedness, or resilience:
Coastal vegetation including mangroves, saltmarshes, and riparian communities’ plays a critical protective role for agricultural regions by stabilising coastlines, impacting water quality, and acting as a buffer to weather impacts. However, these ecosystems are becoming increasingly exposed to climatic pressures such as prolonged drought, reduced river discharge, elevated temperatures, and shifting salinity regimes. Recent severe mangrove dieback events across northern Australia highlight how climate variability can rapidly destabilise vegetation communities that agriculture and coastal towns rely on. Understanding long-term vulnerability and resilience is therefore essential for drought-ready land management.
My research aligns strongly with TNQ Drought Hub priorities by improving understanding of climate driven vegetation decline and thresholds, supporting early-warning indicators for drought stress, applying innovative remote sensing technologies for landscape-scale monitoring, informing catchment managers, agricultural stakeholders, and councils about coastal ecosystem health and resilience and finally contributing to proactive planning that reduces risk for regional communities and industries.
Academic and research experience relevant to the honours project:
Throughout my Bachelor of Marine Science at JCU, I have built strong skills in coastal ecology, environmental monitoring, GIS, and spatial data analysis. My coursework and field-based training have included ecosystem surveying, vegetation identification, hydrology, sediment processes, and coastal geomorphology.
I have previous work experience as a casual research assistant at TropWATER, where I have gained experience in geospatial analysis, remote sensing workflows, ecological monitoring, and data management. I have worked on projects involving drone imagery, benthic mapping, and environmental assessments, which has strengthened my technical abilities and attention to detail.
I also have had the privilege in gaining additional experience using tools and technologies highly relevant to this project, including drone surveying and aerial imagery interpretation, LiDAR scanning (terrestrial and handheld), Agisoft Metashape, CloudCompare, QGIS, and ArcGIS Pro, analysis of satellite datasets (Sentinel-2, Landsat), fieldwork including water quality sampling, vegetation surveys, and species assessments.
Principal Supervisor’s skills and experience in relation to this project topic:
Professor Rafael Cabral Carvalho is a leading researcher in remote sensing, environmental monitoring, and climate driven marine geoscience change. His expertise includes LiDAR analysis, aerial photography-based mapping, coastal and catchment processes, and modelling environmental responses to climate variability. He has experience supervising Honours, MSc, and PhD students across disciplines involving spatial analysis, environmental change detection, resilience assessment, and geospatial technology. His research strongly aligns with drought resilience, climate adaptation, and innovative monitoring tools for northern Australian environments.
Professor Carvalho’s background ensures strong methodological guidance in multi-temporal LiDAR and satellite data integration, ecosystem vulnerability assessment, climate and hydrological impact analysis, geospatial modelling and interpretation, linking scientific outcomes with real-world management applications. His expertise is highly suited to the aims of this project and the priorities of the TNQ Drought Hub.
My name is Leo and I am an Honours student at James Cook University studying Marine Science. Originally from West Melbourne, my passion for the ocean began at a young age while snorkelling in Port Phillip Bay. Those early experiences exploring coastal ecosystems sparked a fascination with marine life and the importance of protecting these environments. Growing up, I spent as much time outdoors as possible and developed a strong interest in conservation and environmental science. This passion led me to pursue a Bachelor of Marine Science at James Cook University, where I have been able to explore the incredible marine environments of North Queensland and the Great Barrier Reef.
My Honours research focuses on multi-temporal mapping of mangrove forest change and structure along the North Queensland coastline using remote sensing technologies. I am particularly interested in how emerging technologies such as satellite imagery, LiDAR, and other remote sensing tools can be used to better monitor and protect coastal ecosystems. By combining conservation science with developing technology, I hope to contribute to more effective ways of understanding and managing environmental change. Outside of my studies, I enjoy travelling and spending time in nature, whether that’s diving, hiking, or exploring new environments. I am also passionate about wildlife photography and videography, which allows me to document and share the beauty of the natural world.
Future Career Goals:
Looking ahead, my goal is to continue working in marine conservation and research, using innovative technologies to help better understand and protect vulnerable coastal ecosystems.
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To be completed.