TNQ Drought Hub
James Cook University Australia
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Climate Data Analysis

The purpose of this study was to analyse 60 years worth of climate and weather data in Western Queensland to enable farmers to make better informed management decisions.

Better decision making through understanding weather and climate trends

Aim:

The aim of this project was to use local weather data from trusted sources to develop place-based climate data modelling that helps land managers better understand weather patterns and climate trends, enabling them to make informed farm management decisions.

Background

Most climate data available to land managers is model-based and sourced from regional-scale models or external datasets. As a result, land managers have been reluctant to fully accept this information, lacking confidence that the modelling truly represents the specific conditions on their land. While some tools offer limited localised information, they often lack the capacity and efficiency to provide robust, multi-parameter, trend-based insights.

Southern Gulf Natural Resource Management group, in partnership with TNQ Drought Hub recognised this challenge and saw the potential of using accurate, localised temperature and rainfall data to improve climate conversations with land managers. This approach aimed to transform how climate information is communicated and used to support practical, on-farm decision-making in the face of climate variability.

Why this Matters

Sound agricultural planning relies on confident, informed decision-making, which includes anticipating periods of drought, extreme heat, or rainfall variability. When data is not locally grounded or lacks transparency, land managers are less likely to use it. which can undermine on-farm drought resilience, risk management, and resource planning.

Natural Resource Management (NRM) groups also require robust, region-specific evidence to communicate climate risks, design new projects, select monitoring sites, and support the adoption of best-practice management strategies.

By integrating local data with scientific analysis, this approach bridges the gap between climate research and on-ground action, building partnerships between researchers, land managers, and NRM groups while equipping the agricultural community with reliable tools for drought and climate resilience planning.

What We Did
  • From the beginning, NRM groups helped define the questions and priorities to ensure the analysis met real-world needs.
  • Southern Gulf NRM and the TNQ Drought Hub collected temperature and rainfall recordings from trusted, local sites (such as post offices at Burketown, Julia Creek, Cloncurry, Mt Isa, Richmond, Hughenden, and McKinlay). Data was sourced from 1963 to 2022 via the Bureau of Meteorology, Long Paddock, and My Climate View resources.
  • Using advanced statistical methods, the analysis assessed annual, seasonal and monthly trends across parameters such as rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures, evaporation, and crop water use. Trends were categorised as increasing, decreasing or stable. Trend lines and heatmaps were developed providing clear, accessible visual tools for discussions with land managers.
  • Specific investigations, such as the frequency and duration of extreme heat days during calving periods, were included to address practical land management concerns.
  • After success with Southern Gulf NRM, similar analyses were rolled out to other Nodes, driven by local demand and tailored to each region’s climate concerns (e.g. wind and humidity).

What Changed

  • Informed Strategic Planning: Southern Gulf NRM used the trend data to guide regional strategies and communicate with land managers at field days. Reef Catchments and NQ Dry Tropics also used the information to help design projects and select monitoring locations that capture climate variability.
  • Practical Planning Benefits: The data has supported land managers plan around the occurrence and duration of heatwaves (e.g. days >35°C, >40°C), directly benefiting animal welfare decisions (particularly during calving), crop management and resource allocation.
  • Trust and Knowledge Transfer: The co-designed, local approach has strengthened connections between researchers and agricultural communities, leading to tailored communication and more rapid uptake due to confidence in climate projections, as models incorporated data from sites familiar to them.

Opportunities for Improvement and Key Learnings

  • Co-design is essential: Engaging NRM groups and land managers from the outset ensured the outputs were relevant, practical, and immediately useful
  • Scalable approach: The successful pilot with Southern Gulf NRM demonstrated a scalable model, allowing expansion across the TNQ Drought Hub region to other Nodes for place-based modelling.
  • Local data builds trust: Using recognisable, local data sources has helped address scepticism towards climate modelling and increased confidence in in using the data for decision-making.
  • Continuous feedback: Feedback from NRM groups highlighted the modelling’s value while identifying opportunities to expand parameters (e.g. wind and humidity) to increase relevance for specific regions and industries.
  • Capacity Building: Continued training and support for NRM staff and land managers on interpreting and applying the data will help translate insights into effective on-ground actions.
  • Clear visual tools matter: Heatmaps and trend lines provided accessible, practical outputs that land managers. Creating user-friendly, regularly updated products (such as dashboards or customisable maps) could further support timely decision-making.

Conclusion

This case study illustrates how locally grounded, co-designed climate modelling strengthens trust, communication, and informed on-farm decisions. By combining rigorous scientific methods with regional participation and recognisable data sources, the project has enabled land managers and NRM groups make more informed decisions, supporting practical actions that build resilience, productivity, and preparedness for drought and climate variability across Tropical North Queensland.

For more details about the climate analysis, please contact Project Lead Ben Jarihani 0491 301 163 or ben.jarihani@jcu.edu.au   

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