Drought and Resilience
Photo Credit: Cape York, NRM, Fitzroy Basin Association, Reef Catchments and Southern Gulf NRM
Photo Credit: Cape York, NRM, Fitzroy Basin Association, Reef Catchments and Southern Gulf NRM
The official definition of drought in Queensland is when rainfall recorded during the previous 12 months (or longer) is in the driest 10% of years.
Nationally, however, there is no single official definition of drought. The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) defines drought as “a prolonged, abnormally dry period when there’s not enough water available to meet normal use”.
Put simply, drought happens when there’s not enough rain.
This lack of rain then leads to one or more drought impacts:
Drought should not be confused with regular dry weather patterns. Across northern Australia, the winter months are regularly much drier than the summer months and referred to as the ‘dry season’. The dry season usually occurs between May and October each year.
A ‘late wet season’ can also be confused for drought. This is when rainfall is delayed or patchy, falls short of seasonal expectations, or doesn’t adequately replenish water systems.
While drought intensity thresholds differ across different systems, the Australian Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) measures drought as a percentile value, which is then grouped into categories:
| Category | Percentile | Approximate frequency of drought |
|---|---|---|
|
Slightly Dry |
20% to 30% |
1 in 3 years |
|
Moderate Drought |
10% to 20% |
1 in 5 years |
|
Severe Drought |
5% to 10% |
1 in 10 years |
|
Extreme Drought |
2% to 5% |
1 in 20 years |
|
Exceptional Drought |
0% to 2% |
1 in 50 years |
Defining when a drought has broken is even more challenging, but it only truly ends when there is enough water to meet everyone’s needs across households, communities and industries – and this looks different from one property and region to the next.
Drought resilience needs to focus on ‘becoming stronger, better and readier’. It should not be confused with stoicism or ‘hanging in there’ as resilience includes learning from previous droughts and making changes to be better prepared for the next one.
Key elements of resilience for agricultural businesses are planning and preparedness, adaptability and flexibility and building adequate environmental, economic and social reserves to carry you through the next drought. Planning and generating reserves need to be undertaken during better seasons. Once the next drought hits, the focus shifts quickly to ‘survival mode’ and reserves start to be drawn down e.g. to compensate for a lack of income.
The process of planning is more important than sticking to a rigid plan, especially having thought through decisions that might need to be made ahead of time. It is crucial to prepare strategies and plans but maintain flexibility to respond to markets or other external forces.
During drought, market and weather conditions can change quickly. However, there is nearly always some level of inherent pattern (e.g. hay and fodder prices will nearly always spike during widespread drought, especially if southern Australia’s main hay production regions are also in drought, and often exacerbated by hay growers being locked into export contracts). It is possible to anticipate risks and opportunities based on historic patterns, location and enterprise mix but there will always be new factors that need to be considered and adapted to.
Drought recovery is the phase of the cycle when it is important to reflect, learn and implement changes, rather than trying to simply return to how things were before the drought. The magnitude of change will be different for every business, and may range from revising drought, business and succession plans to refocusing the business, changing the enterprise mix, relocating to a different region, or exiting the industry. The Future Drought Fund Strategic Investment Plan refers to “activities that drive change, including incremental, transitional and transformational change”.
Land condition and soil health
In extensive grazing systems, land needs to be in A or B condition to be resilient. In C or D land condition categories pasture is dominated by annual plants, which exacerbates rainfall variability, is unsustainable and risks loss of market as consumers demand evidence of sustainable production systems.
The equivalent for intensive grazing, cropping and horticulture is soil health e.g. erosion or the loss of soil organic carbon can reduce the water holding capacity and available nutrients.
Financial
Having financial reserves ready for the next drought is essential to maintaining cash flow to continue to pay fixed costs and maintain liquidity. Income during severe and extended drought can reduce to zero, but fixed costs must still be met. Some non-fixed costs can only be reduced by a proportion but not avoided entirely e.g. drawings are still required to meet the essential needs of the family in a sole trader situation, or salaries paid to a manager etc.
Successful multi-generational graziers in western Queensland ensure they have access to 2-3 years of cash reserves ready for the next drought, in anticipation of farm income reductions of 25-100%. These might be savings, Farm Management Deposits, serviceable debt options, or through off-farm employment or investments. The extent of financial reserves required depends on geographic location, drought severity and duration, enterprise mix, business model, and personal situation.
Personal
Drought is generally a high workload, sleep deprived, high pressure, and stressful environment which can undermine effective decision making and relationships. Maintaining the wellbeing of all family members and employees during drought can be the biggest challenge but also the key to success. Resilience, rather than stoicism, is essential and created through good preparation and planning, good communication, and by acknowledging that the next drought is just around the corner.
Personal reserves include ensuring strong support networks of family, friends and professional advisors/services, being well informed and having thought through decisions in anticipation of changes to weather, markets and circumstances so that decisions can be made early and effectively.
Drought and climate resilience activities are often interconnected and building resilience in one area can improve the ability to manage other risks.
The Future Drought Fund defines drought resilience is “the ability to adapt, reorganise or transform in response to changing temperature, increasing variability, and scarcity or changed seasonality of rainfall, for improved economic, environmental and social resilience”.
The Future Drought Fund (FDF) is the Australian Government’s major investment into drought preparedness. It provides secure, continuous funding for initiatives that support farmers and regional communities prepare for and build resilience to drought and other climate impacts.
This funding supports them to prepare for, manage through, and recover better from drought when conditions improve. The fund is a long-term investment that demonstrates the Australian Government’s ongoing commitment to enhance drought preparedness and resilience.
The FDF is one part of the broader drought policy landscape, which includes a range of complementary plans and agreements. Together, these form the government’s response to drought.
The Australian Government’s approach to supporting the agricultural sector to manage drought is built around a three-stage cycle:
Help is available to those affected by drought, natural disasters and other hard times. There is support and people you can talk to, to help you prepare for, manage and recover.
The Rural Financial Counselling Service North Queensland provides free, confidential, and impartial financial counselling to rural and small businesses across North Queensland. Their services include:
Local
Get in touch with your Local Government Authority to find out what support is available in your area.
State
Contact the Queensland Government to find out what support, grants and training are available to help manage the impact of drought:
National
The Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry provides programs, support and information on drought.
It’s also important to take care of your own health and wellbeing during difficult times. Here are some services:
Climate refers to the long-term pattern of weather conditions in a region over a long period, typically decades.
It includes patterns of temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind, and seasons. Unlike weather, which can change daily, climate describes the long-term trends and variability that shape ecosystems, agriculture, and human activities.
Australia’s climate is shaped by a mixture of global climate systems, regional and local factors. The two biggest influences on Australia’s rainfall variability are:
Other climate influences include the northern monsoonal systems, Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).
Learn more from the Bureau.
According to trusted organisations the Bureau of Meteorology and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia is expected to experience:
In Northern Australia specifically, projections show:
While these trends are similar overall, there is still uncertainty in exactly how these events will change at a regional level.
This is due to Australia’s natural climate variability, the use of different climate models and how future greenhouse gas emissions change depending on factors like population growth, economy, technology, and policies.
Learn more about resources available through the Queensland Governments Longpaddock.
However, it’s important to remember that these predictions are not set in stone and we can still influence longer-term climate change.
By planning for these uncertainties, reducing emissions, managing natural resources sustainably and strengthening infrastructure we can build a foundation for smarter, resilient decision making.
Learn more about the state of Australia’s climate.
Understanding the influence of climate and weather in your region is just as importance as knowing your soil health or stocking rates. Changes in climate affect every part of primary production, from planting and harvesting windows to livestock health and infrastructure planning.
By keeping track of how the climate drivers like the monsoon, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole shape local rainfall and temperature, you can make better-informed decisions year to year.
In Tropical North Queensland drought does not look the same everywhere and local differences mean that drought can feel very different. For some, it becomes months, not weeks without rain and for others it means flooding rains that wash away topsoil and affect future pasture growth.
Building a strong understanding of the local climate helps producers stay resilient, reduce risks, and take advantage of opportunities in a changing environment.
Bureau of Meteorology
CSIRO
Future Drought Fund
Government
Other